I want that and that and ....JPG) |
The party hosts had it all. A great house, tatsefully decorated, a 'pottery barn' mud room, top of the line applicances, granite countertop, trampoline, swing set (the expensive one), large 2-tier deck ...
You could sense the tad bit of envy felt by some of the guests. The bar had been set and the race to compete was on.
We all have friends, neighbors or acquantainces that set the bar for us. The bar of spending, accumulating and living large. And we feel obliged to compare and take up the challenge. There is no choice. Or is there?
The only way I know you can get out of this vicious cycle is - self realization. Realization about what is important to you, what are your objecitives in life, what are your limitations and how you want to live your life. Temptations will always be there in life - to prevail you have to get above them.
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How it used to be ... |
In 2000 the technology bubble burst and my portfolio suddenly shrank in size by 50-75%. But I was in denial or more aptly was just ignorant. I held on to my technology mutual funds and stocks … expecting these companies to rebound. As months turned into years – reality started to sink in. We had turned a critical corner in the technology revolution and the players had changed for good. I had learned my lesson and sold off my beaten down technology stocks and moved on.
A similar cataclysmic change seems to be happening in the energy space. Oil prices may retreat eventually but will life go back to how it used to be? The more time we spend with $4-5 gas – the more pervasive the changes.
What was taken for granted till recently is being re-evaluated. Gas or energy inflation is driving long-term behavioral changes. The winners of tomorrow may not be the oil companies and refiners – that is old school. The new players will be alternative fuels companies, energy innovators, conservation specialist and efficiency gurus. A corollary of this impact will also be the evolution of green. Green as a way of life, as a way of conducting business, as a necessity and not a fad.
Will the gasoline engine survive (and the Detroit auto industry)? Will Mc Mansions still be in vogue five years from now? Will commute times and telecommunications change the way we work? Will renewals become routine energy sources? Will America reduce its consumption? How will global energy demand be met? What will be the impact of increased fossil fuel usage on the climate? What innovations in travel, building construction and technology be unveiled that will change the way we live?
We live at the cusp of revolutionary change. Betting on Google, Amazon and Apple after the technology bust would have paid off handsomely. Question is what should one bet on next?
(Photo courtesy Flickr/The Visions of Kai)
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Pick a side |
The battle between fear and greed rages on. Turn on CNBC and you only hear about these two emotions. Rational thinking and market analysis is taking a backseat to pure speculation and conjecture.
There is rampant fear about how bad it is going to get. This emotion drives selling, panic and despair. And this emotion is not limited to the retail investor like you and me, it is pervasive as evidenced by the daily market sell offs.
The other camp touts greed - time to bottom pick. This emotion drives the exhilaration of getting a bargain, the need to buy and accumulate what is deemed cheap. Multiples are ridiculously low, we are still not in a recession, global demand is high and as usual the market is over-reacting.
Time will tell if this was a good time to be fearful, greedy or just a spectator.
(Photo courtesy - Flick)
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"Human wants are unlimited" was the starting sentence in my 8th grade Economics textbook. That sentence has stuck with me. Incidentally I keep running into situations that remind me of that human frailty more and more. Here is an example that epitomizes this conundrum.
Abu Dhabi businessman Saeed Khouri made headlines and the Guinness Book of World Records when he paid $14 million for the tag simply sporting a "1." His cousin, stockbroker Talal Khouri, paid $9 million for "5" -- the second-largest sum ever paid for a license plate.
WSJ - Read My License Plate: It Cost Me a Fortune
I guess the pertinent question which we struggle with comes down to - what is enough? Enough ambition, enough money, enough power, enough status...
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20% Down |
"With the Dow sliding into a bear market on Wednesday, the dark days on Wall Street are far from over, amid record oil prices, struggling consumers and the never-ending credit crisis."
Yahoo Finance
I guess reality is slowly sinking into the market. All is not well and the malaise will probably stick around for a while. At some level we all knew that things will get ugly but thinking is different from experiencing. Now with the market dropping like a rock – the pain is real. Your portfolio is decimated, annualized returns are receding and you start to wonder – what am I doing in the market?
The desire to cut & run is strong. You wince each time the market drops another 100 points. The parade of red down arrows at the end of a trading day is always unpleasant. And the doom & gloom prophecies are gaining momentum. What was hot and prudent yesterday is suddenly iffy and speculative today. Such are the convictions of the market gurus & pundits.
I am staying. Staying because I believe in the robustness of the global business environment. People are getting richer, opportunities for growth are tangible, technology is enabling globalization and yes – long-term equity appreciation is probable. Agreed that there are real issues facing the global economy today but strong demand will lead to strong growth which will lead to strong profits and strong markets.
I am buying what is on sale. Real estate is on sale. Equities are fine but diversification means getting beyond one asset class. With bargains aplenty – why not acquire some real estate. Be a landlord, build some equity, run a business and invest in another asset class.
I am learning. Stick with your gut. The market behaves in irrational ways but it cannot ignore large macro trends. Sooner or later the market will reflect reality. It was obvious early this year that we are headed for trouble but convinced ourselves otherwise. Ignore the noise, do your research and stick with what works for you.
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Break free! |
Bondage is a suffocating experience. When you look around the world and see limited personal freedom - it makes you appreciate your personal freedom even more. We may take our freedom for granted but every once in a while one needs to pause and reflect on what a blessing we have.
This weekend as you enjoy your personal freedom, take a few moments to reflect on these freedoms also
- Financial freedom: Understanding and appreciating what you have, what you want, why you crave and what financial freedom means to you.
- Material freedom: At the end of the day - it is only stuff. Your attachment to stuff can become limiting and suffocating. Do you own stuff or does stuff own you?
- Free to think: What limits you is your inclination or habits - not your ability. Why not think big, think broad, think inclusive and keep an open mind?
- Freedom to act: You live in a free society, with a free market and ample resources. What limits your ability to live your dream?
- Freedom from fear: Fear of losing your job, fear of rejection, fear of failure, fear of losing money ... we live a life driven by fear. Some valid and some imposed. Prepare, act and think positive - what is the worst that can happen?
Some freedom is external, some is internal. Sometimes we create the limitations and constraints that hinder our growth. This weekend reflect on what freedom is within your control and what is stopping you from breaking free!
(Photo courtesy Flick/Kazze)
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Volatility! Makes your head spin. Till recently the concensus was - the credit crisis is behind us, earnings are good, globalization works - the bulls run. Today, we are officially in bear territory, back to where we were in 2006 and it could get worse.
Who do you trust? Who do you listen to? What do you sell or buy? What actions do you take - if any? My take on this situation - forget the noise, instead focus on the trends. And the trends to monitor are
- Energy: Oil at $140 may be a fluke but there is an energy trend in the works. The billions of new consumers all want their cars, fridges and fast food. Energy needs are growing exponentially while proven supply models are unsustainable. New energy sources, alternative fuels, conservation, consumption and behavior are all prone to change dramatically in the next decade.
- Globalization: BRIC, emerging economies and Chindia are regular discussion topics in newspapers, TV and online media. The world economy with its global workforce, manufacturing capabilities and increasing buying power is not a fad. How the global socio-economic factors evolve is yet to be determined? Will the US retain its economic supremacy? How will the billions of consumers in India and China impact corporate profits & growth?
- Technology: The Internet revolution has just begun. Compound that with telecommunications, wireless and mobile computing and you have a potent mix of change elements, which have the power to drastically change our life styles. How we communicate, live and shop are all subject to change.
- Environment: Is the planet heating up? The artic ice cap is melting, weather patterns are changing, oceans are warming up and global warming is a proven fact. Fossil fuels, human waste, destruction of rain forests and pollution caused by human activities are all changing the earth. Some effects are apparant, some will manifest themselves in the years to come.
Investing has to be a long-term and holistic discipline. You have to account for the trends and changes shaping our world. Invest prudently in companies and ideas that are evolving because therein lies the huge returns of tomorrow.
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Investors who have been counting on more of the vigorous earnings growth that attracted them to emerging markets in the first place are in for a very big disappointment. Such expectations, Dee declares, "will be crushed." The great unwinding of emerging markets has just begun, he avers, "with much carnage still forthcoming."
S. Dewey Keesler - SDK Capital in Barrons
What goes up must come down |
The story was too good to be true and skipped the fairy tale ending. The darlings of the past few years - India & China are showing signs of fatigue. The stock markets are getting pummeled which was being predicted due to the hype and speculation built into the stocks.
Other worries are starting to hound these economies. India is dealing with rampant inflation (whole sale price index is up a whooping 11%) which is causing it's central bank to raise rates and increase margin requirements. Wage inflation is starting to affect the competitiveness of the outsouring industry and infrastructure woes keep growth constrained.
"India's wage inflation, which approached an estimated 14 percent last year, is a natural byproduct of a classic supply-and-demand scenario."
Will India price itself out of offshore market?
China's short-term growth trajectory is tied to the Olympics which comes with it's own set of issues.
High commodity prices, especially stratospheric oil prices are crimping China's manufacturing prowess. The breakneck growth in China is also exposing the toll on the environment, social readjustment and political challenges. BusinessWeek recently
opined that it might be time for jobs to move back to the US from China.
" The economics of global trade are starting to tilt back in favor of the U.S. to a degree unseen in a generation."
So where are we headed? Is the correction in the emerging markets over? Are India & China headed towards the next economic super power status? Is the world truly decoupled? Will the US economic slowdown drag down the world economy?
I am not sure where we are headed in the short-term. The growth in emerging markets is for real and long-term investment prospects are probably bright. Time will tell how the global economy fares in the next 5-10 years.
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Another example ... |
- Can you be wealthy and not conspicuous?
- Can you live on $50K/year in San Francisco?
- Is is possible to be wealthy, frugal and socially aware?
The answer to the above questions is yes, yes and yes. Kiplinger’s recently profiled Rik Wehbring, a 37 year old who lives in San Francisco on $50K. He is frugal, anti-spotlight and a millionaire.
'Wehbring, a dot-com millionaire who made his wealth working for several Internet startups, isn't alone. In this era of conspicuous consumption, he and others like him are saying "no thanks," opting instead for a more reasonable lifestyle. The Sunday Telegraph of London has given this demographic a name -- YAWNs -- Young and Wealthy but Normal.'
It is refreshing and encouraging to come across such cases. Frugality is a lifestyle, which once adopted does not have to change with your financial situation. Be who you are!
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Who you know! |
Professional networking is a well known corporate best practice. It is a proven concept where 'who you know' helps you in your current corporate environment and obviously when you explore opportunities beyond your cube walls. Most job openings are staffed by references and networking versus resumes flowing from internet sites.
The same concept – albeit hugely magnified is a key success component when you get into a small business environment. At least that had been my experience so far.
Bottomline – there are people in every walk of life who specialize or are the best in their line of work. Networking gets you connected with these folks. And if you are connected with the best – your chances of success increase dramatically.
Here is an example. I was working with my residential realtor for the last six months trying to line up a rental property. Great realtor but his area of expertise is residential properties whereas I am looking for investment properties. That is a mismatch and beyond limited success, also increases my risk since I am on my own. I need to evaluate all prospects, find funding, find investors, find attorneys and figure my way around.
I recently met a realtor who specializes in investment properties. He knows where the best investment properties are, he knows the investors, he knows the tricks of the trade and understands how the game is played. If I work with this realtor - my risk profile decreases substantially since I am partnering with an expert in the field.
You might have a great idea but execution of any idea requires competencies that far exceed your capabilities. Therein lies the key to success – leveraging other peoples competencies by making them part of your team. You get great advice, top-notch information, reduce your risk and increase your chances for success - what is not to like about this situation!
Reach out, ask, explore and connect with the right people. The network is the key to success.
(Photo courtesy Flickr/luc legay)
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Find your calling |
As for the undergrads’ career goals, 45% picked “to be secure and stable in my job,” and behind “work/life balance” (64%).Last year just 34% voiced such bread-and-butter ambitions.
BusinessWeek
I thought secure and stable was a misnomer in today's flat world. Life long employment is becoming a thing of the past - for the most part.
So, is being an entrepreneur the answer? Or perhaps owning your own business. What about having a talent like singing (American Idol is casting again)? A sports scholarship would be nice. Vocations like medicine or banking are still in vogue. Maybe coding some widgets or starting a social networking phenomenon is the way to go.
And there is the obvious – keep the nose to the grindstone and study study study – get into a good college – get a secure & stable job - work hard and climb the ladder.
Hmmm – so many options. What should I focus my kids on? What is the need of tomorrow? What will give them the skills and advantage they need to succeed? What is success - money, power, 'secure & stable' or passion?
What about all the above? In other words – should I not strive to provide the maximum exposure I can to my kids. A person can do a lot in today’s world – why limit one’s choices. Even worse – why force my kid into something that I feel strongly about. It is not about me but about me educating them and guiding them to a certain point in their life. If I do my job right they will have the perspective and courage to make smart choices about their career and life.
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After years of free spending -- $200 jeans, a silver BMW and other grown-up toys -- Michael Wagner had racked up $25,000 in credit-card debt and was behind on his mortgage and car payments. Creditors called night and day. It was a "hopeless downward spiral," he says.
Then, last November, the 34-year-old sales manager for the St. Louis Post-Dispatch joined the "Sunday morning breakfast club," a group of debtors who meet weekly over coffee and eggs to share money woes. Mr. Wagner says he is now on the road to financial recovery, helped by his discovery that "I wasn't alone."
WSJ
Does excessive debt reflect behavioral issues? Probably!
After you cross a certain line it is almost an affliction. A condition, not unlike, an addiction to tobacco or alcohol. Fine in moderation but bad for you in excess. When spending or debt management gets out of control you can either seek help or solve the problem yourself. If you have ever tried to quit (smoking) cold turkey - you know how difficult it can be. Recasting yourself as a born again frugalarian is no less difficult. Support groups, education, family support and resolve will eventually lead to success. It is difficult but it is doable.
But first you have to admit that there is a problem. So what are the tell tale signs that you may be headed for trouble
- You buy first, ask questions later
- You have a vague idea about how much money you have in the bank
- You have an even vaguer idea about how much debt you have
- You think every coupon is free money and a buying opportunity
- Your mail box is overflowing with product catalogues
- You feel lost and disoriented without your credit cards
- You are acutely aware and crave the latest fad
- You always seem to run out of closet/storage space
- You keep finding things that you have bought but don't remember buying them
- You live today - spend today, consume today and buy today
If you truly want to break the habit and get out of debt - extreme measures are required. Consider draconian measures like eating only rice & beans till you are in the black. Yes - it can be done although it may be painful. But it is worth it!
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And the number is ... |
I know I have done it, probably you have too. Set a goal to lose some weight. So you ask - what is wrong with that objective? Here are my 2 cents ...
You think losing weight is a goal but there is a flaw in that thought process. Weight loss is not a goal or destination - it is a by product of a different objective. And the objective which you need to recognize and embrace is your health. Good health is a result of healthy living. And healthy living is a life-style. It is not a fad that you choose to follow today and skip tomorrow. You breath, you sleep, you live frugally - similarly you live healthy - everyday.
The basic tenets of healthy living are eating right and exercising. In today’s environment both these rudimentary acts have taken on a significance that needs to be understood and appreciated. Food is plentiful and choices abound. So what you choose to eat is important. Do you choose good, nutritious and wholesome food or the bane of modernity - junk food. Remember – it’s your body and what you put in it is your choice. After all we are what we eat.
The other bane of modern society is lack of exercise. Locomotion is supposedly a biological advantage for our species. What a waste of this asset! Again exercise is not a chore – it is a means to replenish your body with good energy and release toxins. It is not an accident that you feel good after exercising – it is your body’s acknowledgement of being in balance. Similar to needing ample sleep to replenish your body (and your mind and soul), you need exercise to keep that balance.
When you elevate your thinking and get to the root of your being you realize that weight loss is meaningless pursuit. It is an illusion. Focus on what is truly important. Give you mind, body and soul the attention they need. If you don’t give yourself that attention and respect – who will?
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Going for the kill |
Ever watch a cheetah chase down its dinner? It stalks, waits for the perfect opportunity and then it goes for the kill. There is no hesitation, there is no doubt – it is just 100% commitment to the chase. It is hardwired in a Cheetah because it is a question of life and death.
In humans it is a question of success or failure? A question of commitment versus vacillation? A question of giving it your 100% - everytime.
- Do you give it a 100% at work - everyday?
- Are you valuing and appreciating your family – every moment?
- Are you giving your customers a superior experience – everytime?
- Are you pursuing your dreams – with preparation and no hesitation?
- Are you living a full life or just living a life?
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Seeking some tenants |
I just put in a offer on a rental property. I have been analyzing properties and options for over six months now and with the weak housing market - bargains are starting to appear. The property I put an offer on is a 'short-sale' and offers some price discounts below the market price.
The Numbers
Here is how the magical 25% return number is derived. The propety is a 4-unit townhouse (2 bedroom, 1.5 bath) in a nice neighborhood.
- Sale price = $200,000K
- Down = $40,000K (my investment)
- Mortgage = $160,000 = $800/month @7% interest
- Tax & Insuance/month = $570/month
- Rental/unit = $600/month
- Positive cash flow = $830/month or $9,960/year
- ROI on the initial $40,000 = 25% ($9,960/$40,000)
The Headaches
The 25% ROI is generally not possible when you factor in other costs like maintenance, repairs, utilities, fees, taxes and vacancy. That is the expense side of the equation. Maybe favourable tax treatment (small business, expenses, amortization etc.) will reduce the cost strucutre but that is an unknown as yet.
Then there are the typical hassles of being a landlord. Fussy or difficult tenants, damage to the property, 24/7 'on-call' are some of the obvious pain points. There might be more in store - I guess I will find out.
The Rationale
To me this is diversification. I could put the $40,000 in the stock market or buy some bonds but if majority of my investment are in equity markets - am I diversified?
Another benefit of investing in real estate is - expereince. I am sure I will learn from this experience. This venture may open other doors or provide me with the insight to do different deals in real estate. I can speculate on how and what - but unless I do it - there is limited learning.
There are risks and cautions but as they say nothing ventured - nothing gained.
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Fidelity Investor's Weekly provided insight into some pertinent college saving myths. Bottom line - saving for college is good!
- Myth 1:Saving in a 529 plan will affect my child's eligibility to receive financial aid
529 assets are associated with you and not your child. According to the federal financial aid formula, parent-owned assets are assessed at approximately 5%, compared with 20% of the child's assets.
- Myth 2: I shouldn't risk investing my money in a college savings account when the market is so volatile
Think dollar cost averaging and contribute regularly.
- Myth 3 : I'll lose control over the assets in a 529 plan if my child decides not to attend college
Assets can be used to fund a different childs education or your own.
- Myth 4: 529 plans offer limited investment options
A wide variety of investment choices are available. Check out the options
- Myth 5: I don't have enough money to open a 529 plan
Minimum requirements are $15 - $50.
- Myth 6: I don't want to limit my child's college options by having to invest in my state-sponsored 529 plan
Getting into a good school is a bigger challenge - the money will follow you.
- Myth 7: The contribution limits of 529 plans won't allow me to save enough for college
Contribution limits are $300K or more so this is a non-issue.
- Myth 8: You can get a better return on your investments if you create your own portfolio of funds versus savings in a 529 plan
Possible but keep in mind the other benefits (like tax reduction).
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What bus are you on? |
Is $4 gas causing you to change? I bet it is. I am much more aware and cautious about my driving distances and habits. The ever-increasing price tag at the gas pump is a frequent remainder for conserving and optimizing my gas bill. Hybrids,
green and alternative would not be so hot if gas cost 99c/gallon.
Today we may whine and complain about the price of gas but what are the options? Like it or not but the only options are conserve, optimize and reduce. This same principle applies to other facets of life like finance.
A core component of wealth creation is saving. Unfortunately this concept is trumped by another fact of life - the more you make, the
more you spend. So how do you make it happen? Sage advice includes - budgeting,
trimming your discretionary expenses,
frugal living and
paying yourself first. All good concepts but hard to implement primarily because of the options we have. If I save, what stops me from dipping into my savings or borrowing against my 401(K) or home equity? Nothing except my will power!
And therein lies the issue. Without will power or conviction - will you succeed in your new diet, will you continue with your exercise routine, will you update your resume and look for another job and will you really trim your expenses?
When we procrastinate and take the easy route - we surrender the option to make the right choice, which is often the hard choice. Unfortunately this easy route ends sooner than we want. And the ending puts us face to face with reality - with no options except do or die (which is hardly an option).
When your doctor tells you to change your lifestyle - you will diet and exercise, when you get fired or let go - you will look for another job and when you really seek financial independence - you will save and learn about money.
When you have options pick the smart (and maybe harder) option instead of the easiest option.
Here are some ways to get into the saving habit.
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We decided to add a deck to our house since we spend a lot of time outdoors and really enjoyed the deck at our last house. A deck is a significant expense so I decided to be financially smart about getting one. Based on my experience, some suggestions on how to do proper due diligence when considering a significant home improvement project.
Build or Buy
I pride myself in my ability to swing a hammer or use a screwdriver but building a deck? The thought crossed my mind so I did some research on the internet, browsed through some deck building books and mulled over the situation. There are significant savings if you build it yourself but a deck is a complicated project which I felt was better tackled by professionals.
When considering build or buy – think about
- Time commitment – Do you have the time to get this project done?
- Learning curve – Have you dealt with something similar before?
- Competency – Are you really good at this stuff?
- Building code compliance – Sloppy work is not acceptable and will cost you.
- Complexity – The more bells & whistles – the more challenging the project.
- Quality – Always a priority.
Many to One
Finding the right contractor for the job is key. I leveraged Angie’s list, contractor websites and word-of-mouth to contact four contractors. What I was focusing on was
- Quality – Check out past work (pictures) and references
- Credibility – Check for proof of insurance, bonded, member of local and state trade organizations
- Service – Check out customer satisfaction history, complaints (open & resolved) , BBB reviews
Requirements
I spent time laying out my design on paper and listing all my requirements – decking material, railing designs, height, area and layout. Your design may change as you work with different contractors and review price impacts but a detailed design is essential. Why?
- Comparison shopping – You want each contractor to bid on the same requirements.
- Clarity – The more detailed your requirements, the less chance of misunderstanding your needs.
- Options finalization – Decide on what you need (and can afford) to finalize your requirements. Vacillation on requirements is frustrating and will extend your project deadline (costing time & money).
Close the Deal
When you have decided who you want to work with and what you want build – make sure you take care of the following
- Final review – Confirm your final design, specifications, material selection, color, size and final output. No turning back after this point.
- Price discount – Always explore discounts or price breaks. It never hurts to bargain for a better price.
- Pressure Tactics – Don’t be pressured to agree to something you are not comfortable with – price, features or design. You are the customer – feel free to assert the fact.
- Contract – Get your requirements, price, payment method, penalty, warranty and reviews in writing. Make sure you review before your sign.
Upfront time and effort spend in analyzing your requirements and conducting appropriate due diligence is always a prudent approach. Prudent when you consider the financial, functional and aesthetic impact of such projects.
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Mark U Runta 
